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Hi all,

Today, 14 October 2014, we read of a report by WHO which states that by 1 December we could see as many as 10,000 deaths from Ebola per week. Oddly, the mainstream press finds this newsworthy, despite the fact that this very same mathematical statement was made by WHO and CDC weeks ago when the same numbers were provided in a different form. We are told that as of today, there are 4500 dead and 9000 infected. Going off of the average reported error factor of about 2, this means that there are more likely 9000 deaths and 18,000 infected as of now. There is a disturbing problem going on here which begs comment in the harshest terms. Magical thinking is undermining the ability not just of the public, but of the authorities, to comprehend this disaster on account of three salient features now evidenced incontrovertibly by the statements and actions such as the one just noted:

  1. Mathematical illiteracy
  2. Inability to assess the assumptions of the math
  3. Lack of realism; or inability to reduce the general to the specific

What about log base 2 of 18000 can some people not understand? And where people do get the significance of exponential growth, what about the core assumptions is not clear? The only assumptions behind this math are pretty dry:

  1. Nature will not do something incredibly improbable in the next 12 months to favorably alter the math.
  2. There is no infrastructure on Earth that can locate, extract and “isolate” 70% of a population of 36,000 in sub-Saharan Africa scattered in three different jurisdictions over uncounted thousands of square miles of African city and jungle. (I’ll explain that number shortly). And certainly 4000 Marines can’t do it.

WHO and CDC are counting on the magical thinking of isolating 70% of the infected population, based on the idea that the reproduction rate of the virus could be rendered linear under those conditions. But implicit in this thinking is the requirement that all those persons be identified and extracted from the general population, and then isolated not by merely housing and feeding them, but by bio-containment isolation. And if we have 18,000 infected now, give or take a few thousand if it pleases you – it doesn’t much matter – then no infrastructure having a viable mathematical impact on this situation exists now and will not likely exist within the doubling time of the viral spread. Therefore, let’s not be silly and let’s assume 2*18,000=36,000. It certainly isn’t going to happen with 2000 beds provided by the U.S. military.

I’ve been trying to explain this now for over two months (in various forms) and am convinced no one comprehends a thing I’m saying.

Let me be clear, the assumptions given above are highly likely to hold and the logarithmic relation given will dominate the outcome. What part of that sentence is confusing? Do I really need to work this logarithm to demonstrate what highly likely means? Try this:

log2(7*109) – log2(36000) = about 17.5 months

I’m assuming that the doubling is every 4 weeks, which is generous, and I’m assuming the world’s population is at least 7 billion. Yes, the doubling rate will increase as the total number of infected increases, but I’ll ignore that for the moment.

We have about 18 months before there won’t be anyone left to discuss this because the mortality rate WHO just released is another failure to reduce the general to the specific; namely, that when people start dying in large numbers the death rate will approach 90% or greater consequent to the sheer anarchy and chaos that will result from the viral mortality of 70%, not to mention the lack of food for anyone remaining.

Let me be clear one more time:

This reduces the problem to two options. We can do one or both. We can develop a real bang up vaccine really, really fast and/or we can isolate populations with force. Of course, the West can relax since their superior health care systems might prevent the assumed “seeding” numbers in the thousands, like we have now in West Africa. In that case, the West can expect to be alone when the dust settles … and to be a little hungry. Hope they’re happy with that. But no, there is no need to panic in the West because clusters will indeed likely be snuffed out. But I hope we can see why …

That doesn’t much *&^% matter.

And speaking of the West, CDC’s recommendations to hospitals are a circus of failures to reduce the general to the specific; a process otherwise known as deduction. “Meticulous” guidelines cannot be followed stochastically in a general hospital environment when those hospitals are using BSL-2. Someone in USG with a brain needs to implement BSL-4 in regional hospitals … right now.

I think nature is about to “inform” us as to just how dumb we really are and future observers will quite likely regard many actions already taken or omitted as criminal negligence of the highest order.

Over the past couple of years I’ve been trying to get the message out that religion and political ideology are vehicles of misplaced emotion that undermine IQ and are squeezing humanity into destruction in a death spiral of ignorance and superstition. I’m afraid my message won’t be heard until billions die.

– kk

EbolaClinicThe Ebola community clinic suggested by WHO and posted on the Washington Post website. U.S. should immediately begin production of self-contained, modular “kits” of this design on a war footing now. They should plan on constructing thousands. Provisions to provide armed security using U.S. military personnel at each of these clinics should be added to this design.

The following is a thought experiment with updates and it should be taken seriously, but not as an inevitability either. Nature can upset these rates of viral diffusion in any number of ways and there are too many variables to know if this estimate is valid. This is just my opinion, and the suggestions are offered as such.

If the number of infected persons should exceed 100,000, then it is unlikely that any international effort will have sufficient resources to make any mathematically non-negligible difference in the rate of diffusion of the virus. At that time, the only means of stopping the diffusion of the virus will by external quarantine.

Will we see that number? If we assume that the total number of infected is three times the estimated amount, as some close to the ground have stated, and the reported figure is 5347 as of 18 September, then the likely more accurate count is 3*5347=16041 persons as of 18 September. Therefore, 100,000 infected persons is notionally reached on the x’th doubling:

105 = 16041*2x

Solving for x and multiplying by the observed doubling time we get:

[log2 (105) – log2 (16041)] * 3 = 7.92 weeks

Defeating this trend with 3000 military personnel and several tons of equipment is improbable in that time. In fact, making any appreciable difference in this rate is improbable when we consider the fact that it will take at least 30 days for this effort to fully stand up. If we cannot defeat this function in this time, then the point in time that the probability of containing the virus is maximum is when that point is reached; that is, in 7.92 weeks. USG should be prepared for that time, which is about 18 November.

Here’s why.

At this time USG should (and must if it is to succeed as pointed out) shift to a quarantine solution. At this time, the total number of infected is 100,000. While this may be too many to contain the virus within the population, it is small enough to contain it within the borders of the three affected countries, assuming steps are taken to do so. But simply putting troops on the border may not be enough. A no-fly zone will be required and all arteries of passage outside these countries must be involuntarily (but temporarily) evacuated with a radius of not less than 15 miles from the point where the artery intersects the border (the actual distance would vary depending on the size of the passage and the topology). Refugees should be sent to either Liberia, Sierra Leone or Guinea. And authorities will have to “guard” this area and allow no entry. This is the only solution in the absence of a vaccine. USG should begin now to collaborate with all neighboring countries to give U.S. military personnel access to these “choke points”. USN must enforce a no-sail zone off the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone on 18 November.

If these numbers should attain by 18 November USG should initiate stop-loss on all services and respond with a strategic military effort, which may involve the deployment of many tens of thousands of troops. U.S. military forces, if the numbers exceed 3,000, should be issued all chemical, biological and radiological gear (and I do mean ALL three types) to all personnel. Other nations that supply military personnel should do likewise. Prioritization of vaccination, wherever available, should be ranked thusly:

1. Military personnel and health professionals in the hot zone

2. Gibraltar, Sinai and Panama (my concern is that governments will continue to underestimate the scale of human migratory flow, and how this will cause a wave of successive virus infection flow along migration paths, which will converge on these “ambush sites”; in the sense that these sites, if treated wisely, could serve as points to “ambush” the virus).

3. Populations at the periphery of the hot zone

4. The hot zone

5. The global population, en masse.

If the number of infected increases the probability of containment will fall. When the number of infected in the affected countries reaches 1 million, containment will likely fail in any case. 1 million infected will be reached on:

[log2 (106) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 4.5 months, or January 15.

At that time, should that occur, USG should apply the same tactic at Gibraltar and the Sinai and the no-fly and no-sail zone should be extended to the continent of Africa. If a vaccine is available, a mass and heavy vaccination of the population in the areas of Gibraltar and Sinai should be performed in a buffer area extending about 100 miles on either side of this boundary. The vaccine should be made available to any person seeking it, regardless of origin and indeed, it should be mandatory (if a refugee arrives in a heavily vaccinated area they are less likely to attempt to continue their exodus). If a vaccine is not available in that quantity, the same area should be evacuated. In either case, the area will require U.S. troops to deny passage to all persons. They should also deny entry into the vaccinated zone. Once this is accomplished, and all available assets should be employed to do so, similar checkpoints should be established at successive national borders from the outbreak. Obviously, if sufficient quantities of a vaccine remain, they should be administered at those locations and to the population generally.

USG should begin collaboration with Spain, Morocco, Israel and Egypt now. As a precautionary measure, USG should do the same with Panama and begin plans to set up a similar boundary in Panama. Plans to establish a buffer in Panama from Atlantic to Pacific by evacuation should begin now. If the efforts to contain the outbreak on the continent fail the virus will have run its course by:

[log2 (109) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 12 months, or about September 15, 2015.

Resulting in the loss of very roughly 500 million human lives.

If containment to the African continent fails, the virus will run its course and preferentially impact countries that are not well developed or which have large, poor populations. In that case, the virus will run its course in roughly:

[log2 (7*109) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 14 months, or about November 15, 2015.

Resulting in the loss of very roughly 2.5 billion human lives.

If the (by then) pandemic escapes the African continent, China and especially India are at grave risk because of their large, poor populations confined to a single legal jurisdiction. China will likely not allow foreign assistance on a large scale, though India might. The problem that is being overlooked here is that once the virus has a large pool of infected the ability to contain it drops sharply. In reality, I expect the 2.5 billion figure to be higher. We can expect geopolitical destabilization to occur in this case, with war and conflict becoming a salient feature. The worst case scenario, though not a likely one, is for some authorities such as those in China to use a “snake and nape” tactic. I would caution any such nation (think Pakistan and China) that use of nuclear weapons will only exacerbate the problem as the radiological effect will be as bad or worse than the virus itself. The problem here is trying to guess what a developing nation will do when desperate.

There is no way to know how this function will behave in the future and its doubling rate may change, resulting in large differences in these estimates. However, we cannot ignore the fact that the observed doubling rate is the best information we have for projecting the diffusion of the virus. Another reason to be somewhat skeptical of our starting numbers is the fact that we don’t know if the doubling time is an artifact of the reporting fidelity or a true representation of the rate of diffusion of the virus. However, it is probably imprudent to assume the former.

USG and NIH should place GSK on a war footing now, by the manner of imminent domain or national security if necessary. This should be extended to any other private competency as well, if identified. The likelihood of this virus taking a good hold in any industrialized, wealthy nation is very low, but these events could have cataclysmic economic consequences on the entire world nonetheless.

This entire analysis assumes that no mutation rendering transmission airborne occurs. All suggestions provided are made on the premise of minimizing loss of human life.

– kk

The following is a thought experiment and it should be taken seriously, but not as an inevitability either. Nature can upset these rates of viral diffusion in any number of ways and there are too many variables to know if this estimate is valid.

If the number of infected persons should exceed 100,000, then it is unlikely that any international effort will have sufficient resources to make any mathematically non-negligible difference in the rate of diffusion of the virus. At that time, the only means of stopping the diffusion of the virus will by external quarantine.

Will we see that number? If we assume that the total number of infected is three times the estimated amount, as some close to the ground have stated, and the reported figure is 5347 as of 18 September, then the likely more accurate count is 3*5347=16041 persons as of 18 September. Therefore, 100,000 infected persons is notionally reached on the x’th doubling:

105 = 16041*2x

Solving for x and multiplying by the observed doubling time we get:

[log2 (105) – log2 (16041)] * 3 = 7.92 weeks

Defeating this trend with 3000 military personnel and several tons of equipment is improbable in that time. In fact, making any appreciable difference in this rate is improbable when we consider the fact that it will take at least 30 days for this effort to fully stand up. If we cannot defeat this function in this time, then the point in time that the probability of containing the virus is maximum is when that point is reached; that is, in 7.92 weeks. USG should be prepared for that time, which is about 18 November.

Here’s why.

At this time USG should (and must if it is to succeed as pointed out) shift to a quarantine solution. At this time, the total number of infected is 100,000. While this may be too many to contain the virus within the population, it is small enough to contain it within the borders of the three affected countries, assuming steps are taken to do so. But simply putting troops on the border may not be enough. A no-fly zone will be required and all arteries of passage outside these countries must be involuntarily (but temporarily) evacuated with a radius of not less than 15 miles from the point where the artery intersects the border (the actual distance would vary depending on the size of the passage and the topology). Refugees should be sent to either Liberia, Sierra Leone or Guinea. And authorities will have to “guard” this area and allow no entry. This is the only solution in the absence of a vaccine. USG should begin now to collaborate with all neighboring countries to give U.S. military personnel access to these “choke points”. USN must enforce a no-sail zone off the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone on 18 November.

U.S. military forces, if the numbers exceed 3,000, should be issued all chemical, biological and radiological gear (and I do mean ALL three types) to all personnel. Other nations that supply military personnel should do likewise. Prioritization of vaccination, wherever available, should be ranked thusly:

1. Military personnel and health professionals in the hot zone

2. Gibraltar, Sinai and Panama (my concern is that governments will continue to underestimate the scale of human migratory flow, and how this will cause a wave of successive virus infection flow along migration paths, which will converge on these “ambush sites”; in the sense that these sites, if treated wisely, could serve as points to “ambush” the virus).

3. Populations at the periphery of the hot zone

4. The hot zone

5. The global population, en masse.

If the number of infected increases the probability of containment will fall. When the number of infected in the affected countries reaches 1 million, containment will likely fail in any case. 1 million infected will be reached on:

[log2 (106) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 4.5 months, or January 15.

At that time, should that occur, USG should apply the same tactic at Gibraltar and the Sinai and the no-fly and no-sail zone should be extended to the continent of Africa. If a vaccine is available, a mass and heavy vaccination of the population in the areas of Gibraltar and Sinai should be performed in a buffer area extending about 100 miles on either side of this boundary. The vaccine should be made available to any person seeking it, regardless of origin and indeed, it should be mandatory (if a refugee arrives in a heavily vaccinated area they are less likely to attempt to continue their exodus). If a vaccine is not available in that quantity, the same area should be evacuated. In either case, the area will require U.S. troops to deny passage to all persons. They should also deny entry into the vaccinated zone. Once this is accomplished, and all available assets should be employed to do so, similar checkpoints should be established at successive national borders from the outbreak. Obviously, if sufficient quantities of a vaccine remain, they should be administered at those locations and to the population generally.

USG should begin collaboration with Spain, Morocco, Israel and Egypt now. As a precautionary measure, USG should do the same with Panama and begin plans to set up a similar boundary in Panama. Plans to establish a buffer in Panama from Atlantic to Pacific by evacuation should begin now. If the efforts to contain the outbreak on the continent fail the virus will have run its course by:

[log2 (109) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 12 months, or about September 15, 2015.

Resulting in the loss of very roughly 500 million human lives.

If containment to the African continent fails, the virus will run its course and preferentially impact countries that are not well developed or which have large, poor populations. In that case, the virus will run its course in roughly:

[log2 (7*109) – log2 (16041)] * 3 about 14 months, or about November 15, 2015.

Resulting in the loss of very roughly 2.5 billion human lives.

If the (by then) pandemic escapes the African continent, China and especially India are at grave risk because of their large, poor populations confined to a single legal jurisdiction. China will likely not allow foreign assistance on a large scale, though India might. The problem that is being overlooked here is that once the virus has a large pool of infected the ability to contain it drops sharply. In reality, I expect the 2.5 billion figure to be higher. We can expect geopolitical destabilization to occur in this case, with war and conflict becoming a salient feature. The worst case scenario, though not a likely one, is for some authorities such as those in China to use a “snake and nape” tactic. I would caution any such nation (think Pakistan and China) that use of nuclear weapons will only exacerbate the problem as the radiological effect will be as bad or worse than the virus itself. The problem here is trying to guess what a developing nation will do when desperate.

There is no way to know how this function will behave in the future and its doubling rate may change, resulting in large differences in these estimates. However, we cannot ignore the fact that the observed doubling rate is the best information we have for projecting the diffusion of the virus. Another reason to be somewhat skeptical of our starting numbers is the fact that we don’t know if the doubling time is an artifact of the reporting fidelity or a true representation of the rate of diffusion of the virus. However, it is probably imprudent to assume the former.

USG and NIH should place GSK on a war footing now, by the manner of imminent domain or national security if necessary. This should be extended to any other private competency as well, if identified. The likelihood of this virus taking a good hold in any industrialized, wealthy nation is very low, but these events could have cataclysmic economic consequences on the entire world nonetheless.

This entire analysis assumes that no mutation rendering transmission airborne occurs. All suggestions provided are made on the premise of minimizing loss of human life.

– kk

Hi all,

Perhaps the most important first step in a top-down re-evaluation of global governance should begin by identifying the sine qua non of the global or regional environment necessary for a successful and durable global rule of law to exist. And most of that will hinge on normative beliefs, customs and practices within a given society. This is almost, but not identically, akin to stating that a cultural environment conducive to global rule of law must exist first. And, as it stands, I will argue, this is in fact the key impediment to effective multi-lateralism. Humanity must grow up, change and dispense with beliefs and behaviors that, while they may have an antecedent in our biological and social past, can no longer enjoy scientific support for their continued usefulness.

One of humanity’s greatest foibles is our tendency to inject emotion into intellectual inquiry, and the tendency this has to marginalize and exclude reason. Many today blame this on religion or some other boogey man. Certainly, religion provides a feeding ground for uncontrolled emotion. But the truth is that a more fundamental and universal cause presents itself as misplaced emotion. All of the points outlined below deal directly with this issue and provide a way for humanity to address serious, global issues rationally. It represents an executive summary of what this author has been working on for several years now and a full treatment and justification can be found in later works to be shared.

The most fundamental changes needed can be summarized below:

  1. Matter and Energy; an evolutionary step in our understanding of economic theory such that we delineate the most fundamental factors affecting economies. The most fundamental foundation of an economy lies in how we manage matter and energy. Economic “theory” merely rides on top of this fundamental, limiting fact. For any beings of technological agency, consumption of matter and energy is likely the gravest long-term threat to survival. Yes, this is a universal claim. Today we call this sustainability, but sustainability at such a fundamental level as what we are describing here finds a nexus in economic prosperity as well. They are the same thing; most people just don’t realize it yet. The prevailing myth in our time has us believe that it is a one-way street: prosperity depends on sustainability. The truth is that both depend on each other. So, wherever there is technological agency, consumption of matter and energy will increase with time. Therefore, long-term planning should focus on increasing access to matter and energy. Currently, this is sharply limited because we do not have the means to create an actuarially sound space transportation infrastructure. This author’s primary area of interest and effort lies in work that will grossly antiquate all existing space flight technology and make this an economic reality. We will see more about this in the next 2 to 4 years as this author matures his current work, now being done outside of the public radar. It will be known later in the form of a non-profit named the Organization for Space Enterprise. The reason why space is the focus is lengthy, but our current approach of trying to hold fast to an existing form of matter (such as petroleum) or to transition to a new form of matter (periodic elements used in solar panels, for example) is not scalable. It will ultimately destroy humanity (by a gradual starvation of matter and energy) and the only long-term solution is to source matter and energy in quantities vastly larger than what is available on Earth alone. Because of the time frames involved, this effort must begin now.  This will require nimble, systemic change in the underpinnings of the free market. A clever solution is an optimization that “does no damage” to the existing system but affords more directed use of matter and energy, and this author has a proposal. Whatever this author does, USG would be well-advised to invest heavily in the development of the means and methods (not all of which involves new technologies) required to render space flight economically viable and actuarially sound.
  2. Social Justice; the evolutionary step in our normative understanding of social justice. We need to transform the public understanding of social justice to inhere the more that social justice should be blind to personality and demographic and should rather focus on behaviors of merit and those that lack merit. The old saying that violence begets violence likewise extends to the notion that emotional extremism begets emotional extremism. Almost all notions of social justice today rely on emotional domination of the issues and feed off of ancient and barbaric fears that do nothing but generate a vicious cycle of repeated but varying “causes” through history. The result is that throughout history we see a pattern of social justice never materializing generally throughout society, with one cause giving rise to another in multi-regional and multi-temporal cycle that has been going on for at least 1000 years. This is difficult to see in our immediate present because these patterns take considerable time to cycle and may occur in disparate geographies. At the base of this cycle we see the exclusion of reason in discourse on account of the emotion so naturally abundant in matters of social justice. While emotion has a legitimate place and time, if humanity is to prosper, we must learn how to separate emotion from issues requiring reason to solve. Due to vested interests in the current norm of emotionally-driven understandings of social justice, this is a grave threat to the future of humanity. This will require nimble, systemic change advanced mostly through cultural efforts.
  3. The Political Class and public distrust: Lack of participation and therefore some semblance of control, whether a good thing or not, evokes fear. Fear undermines trust. The solution is to find a reduction of the scope and scale of the political class such that representation and participation of the public is dramatically enhanced. Direct democracies simply do not work, therefore, a totally novel and new understanding of how to merge a political class with a more direct form of participation is urgently needed. This author has a proposal. The future of neo-liberal idealism is the evolution beyond representation alone and more into the area of direct participation. A clever means of rendering that participation competent via a political class is key to this solution involving an Assembly (analogous to a jury) and a Federation Civil Corps of citizens. As organic power decentralizes via technological agency, the duty to participate will quickly transform from nuisance to demand. The key is not to view this as an elimination of the political class, but as a “force multiplier” of the same, permitting the political class to take on a more focused role centering on providing competence to govern. Additional mechanisms within the participatory role of the public are needed to dilute incompetence and enhance representation. This will require nimble, systemic change.
  4. Organic power structure: Organic power structures in any society of technological agency will tend to decentralize over time and organic power in the future will more likely exist as a force of change coming from the populace in mass. The very meaning of “organic power structure” is shifting beneath our feet, and victory will go to those that see it. It is important to warn future generations that this is a consequence of technological change itself and not an objective or goal. We must prepare for this, and it is a key reason for the need to re-frame our normative understanding of social justice (but it must be done for all matters of social justice in order to ensure that a durable norm is the product). Class differences cannot be resolved if justice for one means injustice for another, regardless of the relative differences. This author has a solution that will ensure justice for all, which includes a mechanism that does not rely on schemes of income redistribution or the denial of social reward already accrued through lawful and legitimate means. This transition will occur over many generations no matter what is done, but this author’s solution provides a structured way to do this without injustice and general social collapse; and under a durable framework of governance. The key finding here is that organic power is evolving into something never seen before: organic power has throughout all of human history derived of relatively large differences in wealth but is now, for the first time, evidencing a pattern of change toward balance of power derived of wealth and power derived of technological agency. To remain durable, a responsible government must take these forces of influence into account. This will require nimble, systemic change.
  5. Implementation: A General Federation must be extremely flexible over time such that it can begin as a non-profit, then promote to accession by a nation-state. Then over time it must include other nation-states limited in pace to inclusion of states only where the norms cited herein are sufficiently strong to support it. An alliance of states that do not possess these norms will not be durable or effective and is the primary reason why multilateralism has failed. Currently, the only candidates that exist are the United States, Israel, Germany and the UK, and those states will require much preparatory work in nurturing a healthy set of norms as listed here before that can happen. Currently, the United States is number one on the runway, despite its relatively poor advancement in matters of social justice. Additional mechanisms have been devised to also allow scaled accession of developing nations. But it should not be forgotten that while normative practices are necessary, codification in explicit rule of law must come alongside it. Schemes that deny the central necessity of codified, transparent rule of law gathered by consensus will fail. This is the second cause of the failure of multilateralism. Disaggregated states and other schemes that pretend to operate “from the back door” are not durable in time. We don’t need more politicians or technocrats as they are not a solution to the problem, they are in the near future likely to be the problem. And that is because, wherever the scope of the political class expands, the fear increases. In a future world of ever advancing technological agency failure to better balance competence with participation will be disastrous. The public must be enlisted to fulfill this balance and give agency a voice. To be clear, this identifies the much larger, longer-term threat which it encompasses (but includes much more) we today call terrorism, the canonical, most extreme example of this failure mode.
  6. Who can implement this: Such an effort can only be achieved if spearheaded by the leadership of a nation most “advanced” in these norms and whose relative economic power can sustain it. The United States still isn’t there, but it is humanity’s best hope. It’s time to get novel and advance the state of affairs in the management of human society. The clock is ticking.

Listen to me now, hear me later.

The future will involve many quick pivots as asynchronous events seem to drive us in all directions at once. Multilateralism demands the kind of decisive action only a durable force can provide. A strong federal executive and its lot, constrained by the idealistic, normative values that tame it, is where it’s at. This has been evidenced most recently in the crisis with ISIL and Ebola. One week it was ISIL, the next week it was Ebola. No one invented that. It’s our future, get used to it.

A final, related note is the question of where is Russia, PRC, DPRK et al when Ebola threatens millions of human lives? Yes, they are offering assistance, but no one has acted as assertively as the United States. This is a time-tested pattern. From Fort Sumter to Leyte Gulf, from Ia Drang to Somalia, America has repeatedly shed blood for a greater good. Now, 3000 servicemembers are about to risk their lives once again and thousands of tons of hardware move into harm’s way. It tells us that idealistic normative values coupled with clever fundamental law are the forces of idealism and assertiveness humanity needs. The lack of response elsewhere is not because of a lack of ability. Russia has a fine navy. PRC has a massive army. Criticize the United States if you wish (and there is a time and place for that), but it is a cheap shot that merely jeopardizes humanity’s future. It’s time to get real.

– kk

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