Perhaps the most important first step in a top-down re-evaluation of global governance should begin by identifying the sine qua non of the global or regional environment necessary for a successful and durable global rule of law to exist. And most of that will hinge on normative beliefs, customs and practices within a given society. This is almost, but not identically, akin to stating that a cultural environment conducive to global rule of law must exist first. And, as it stands, I will argue, this is in fact the key impediment to effective multi-lateralism. Humanity must grow up, change and dispense with beliefs and behaviors that, while they may have an antecedent in our biological and social past, can no longer enjoy scientific support for their continued usefulness.
One of humanity’s greatest foibles is our tendency to inject emotion into intellectual inquiry, and the tendency this has to marginalize and exclude reason. Many today blame this on religion or some other boogey man. Certainly, religion provides a feeding ground for uncontrolled emotion. But the truth is that a more fundamental and universal cause presents itself as misplaced emotion. All of the points outlined below deal directly with this issue and provide a way for humanity to address serious, global issues rationally. It represents an executive summary of what this author has been working on for several years now and a full treatment and justification can be found in later works to be shared.
The most fundamental changes needed can be summarized below:
- Matter and Energy; an evolutionary step in our understanding of economic theory such that we delineate the most fundamental factors affecting economies. The most fundamental foundation of an economy lies in how we manage matter and energy. Economic “theory” merely rides on top of this fundamental, limiting fact. For any beings of technological agency, consumption of matter and energy is likely the gravest long-term threat to survival. Yes, this is a universal claim. Today we call this sustainability, but sustainability at such a fundamental level as what we are describing here finds a nexus in economic prosperity as well. They are the same thing; most people just don’t realize it yet. The prevailing myth in our time has us believe that it is a one-way street: prosperity depends on sustainability. The truth is that both depend on each other. So, wherever there is technological agency, consumption of matter and energy will increase with time. Therefore, long-term planning should focus on increasing access to matter and energy. Currently, this is sharply limited because we do not have the means to create an actuarially sound space transportation infrastructure. This author’s primary area of interest and effort lies in work that will grossly antiquate all existing space flight technology and make this an economic reality. We will see more about this in the next 2 to 4 years as this author matures his current work, now being done outside of the public radar. It will be known later in the form of a non-profit named the Organization for Space Enterprise. The reason why space is the focus is lengthy, but our current approach of trying to hold fast to an existing form of matter (such as petroleum) or to transition to a new form of matter (periodic elements used in solar panels, for example) is not scalable. It will ultimately destroy humanity (by a gradual starvation of matter and energy) and the only long-term solution is to source matter and energy in quantities vastly larger than what is available on Earth alone. Because of the time frames involved, this effort must begin now. This will require nimble, systemic change in the underpinnings of the free market. A clever solution is an optimization that “does no damage” to the existing system but affords more directed use of matter and energy, and this author has a proposal. Whatever this author does, USG would be well-advised to invest heavily in the development of the means and methods (not all of which involves new technologies) required to render space flight economically viable and actuarially sound.
- Social Justice; the evolutionary step in our normative understanding of social justice. We need to transform the public understanding of social justice to inhere the more that social justice should be blind to personality and demographic and should rather focus on behaviors of merit and those that lack merit. The old saying that violence begets violence likewise extends to the notion that emotional extremism begets emotional extremism. Almost all notions of social justice today rely on emotional domination of the issues and feed off of ancient and barbaric fears that do nothing but generate a vicious cycle of repeated but varying “causes” through history. The result is that throughout history we see a pattern of social justice never materializing generally throughout society, with one cause giving rise to another in multi-regional and multi-temporal cycle that has been going on for at least 1000 years. This is difficult to see in our immediate present because these patterns take considerable time to cycle and may occur in disparate geographies. At the base of this cycle we see the exclusion of reason in discourse on account of the emotion so naturally abundant in matters of social justice. While emotion has a legitimate place and time, if humanity is to prosper, we must learn how to separate emotion from issues requiring reason to solve. Due to vested interests in the current norm of emotionally-driven understandings of social justice, this is a grave threat to the future of humanity. This will require nimble, systemic change advanced mostly through cultural efforts.
- The Political Class and public distrust: Lack of participation and therefore some semblance of control, whether a good thing or not, evokes fear. Fear undermines trust. The solution is to find a reduction of the scope and scale of the political class such that representation and participation of the public is dramatically enhanced. Direct democracies simply do not work, therefore, a totally novel and new understanding of how to merge a political class with a more direct form of participation is urgently needed. This author has a proposal. The future of neo-liberal idealism is the evolution beyond representation alone and more into the area of direct participation. A clever means of rendering that participation competent via a political class is key to this solution involving an Assembly (analogous to a jury) and a Federation Civil Corps of citizens. As organic power decentralizes via technological agency, the duty to participate will quickly transform from nuisance to demand. The key is not to view this as an elimination of the political class, but as a “force multiplier” of the same, permitting the political class to take on a more focused role centering on providing competence to govern. Additional mechanisms within the participatory role of the public are needed to dilute incompetence and enhance representation. This will require nimble, systemic change.
- Organic power structure: Organic power structures in any society of technological agency will tend to decentralize over time and organic power in the future will more likely exist as a force of change coming from the populace in mass. The very meaning of “organic power structure” is shifting beneath our feet, and victory will go to those that see it. It is important to warn future generations that this is a consequence of technological change itself and not an objective or goal. We must prepare for this, and it is a key reason for the need to re-frame our normative understanding of social justice (but it must be done for all matters of social justice in order to ensure that a durable norm is the product). Class differences cannot be resolved if justice for one means injustice for another, regardless of the relative differences. This author has a solution that will ensure justice for all, which includes a mechanism that does not rely on schemes of income redistribution or the denial of social reward already accrued through lawful and legitimate means. This transition will occur over many generations no matter what is done, but this author’s solution provides a structured way to do this without injustice and general social collapse; and under a durable framework of governance. The key finding here is that organic power is evolving into something never seen before: organic power has throughout all of human history derived of relatively large differences in wealth but is now, for the first time, evidencing a pattern of change toward balance of power derived of wealth and power derived of technological agency. To remain durable, a responsible government must take these forces of influence into account. This will require nimble, systemic change.
- Implementation: A General Federation must be extremely flexible over time such that it can begin as a non-profit, then promote to accession by a nation-state. Then over time it must include other nation-states limited in pace to inclusion of states only where the norms cited herein are sufficiently strong to support it. An alliance of states that do not possess these norms will not be durable or effective and is the primary reason why multilateralism has failed. Currently, the only candidates that exist are the United States, Israel, Germany and the UK, and those states will require much preparatory work in nurturing a healthy set of norms as listed here before that can happen. Currently, the United States is number one on the runway, despite its relatively poor advancement in matters of social justice. Additional mechanisms have been devised to also allow scaled accession of developing nations. But it should not be forgotten that while normative practices are necessary, codification in explicit rule of law must come alongside it. Schemes that deny the central necessity of codified, transparent rule of law gathered by consensus will fail. This is the second cause of the failure of multilateralism. Disaggregated states and other schemes that pretend to operate “from the back door” are not durable in time. We don’t need more politicians or technocrats as they are not a solution to the problem, they are in the near future likely to be the problem. And that is because, wherever the scope of the political class expands, the fear increases. In a future world of ever advancing technological agency failure to better balance competence with participation will be disastrous. The public must be enlisted to fulfill this balance and give agency a voice. To be clear, this identifies the much larger, longer-term threat which it encompasses (but includes much more) we today call terrorism, the canonical, most extreme example of this failure mode.
- Who can implement this: Such an effort can only be achieved if spearheaded by the leadership of a nation most “advanced” in these norms and whose relative economic power can sustain it. The United States still isn’t there, but it is humanity’s best hope. It’s time to get novel and advance the state of affairs in the management of human society. The clock is ticking.
Listen to me now, hear me later.
The future will involve many quick pivots as asynchronous events seem to drive us in all directions at once. Multilateralism demands the kind of decisive action only a durable force can provide. A strong federal executive and its lot, constrained by the idealistic, normative values that tame it, is where it’s at. This has been evidenced most recently in the crisis with ISIL and Ebola. One week it was ISIL, the next week it was Ebola. No one invented that. It’s our future, get used to it.
A final, related note is the question of where is Russia, PRC, DPRK et al when Ebola threatens millions of human lives? Yes, they are offering assistance, but no one has acted as assertively as the United States. This is a time-tested pattern. From Fort Sumter to Leyte Gulf, from Ia Drang to Somalia, America has repeatedly shed blood for a greater good. Now, 3000 servicemembers are about to risk their lives once again and thousands of tons of hardware move into harm’s way. It tells us that idealistic normative values coupled with clever fundamental law are the forces of idealism and assertiveness humanity needs. The lack of response elsewhere is not because of a lack of ability. Russia has a fine navy. PRC has a massive army. Criticize the United States if you wish (and there is a time and place for that), but it is a cheap shot that merely jeopardizes humanity’s future. It’s time to get real.